You know what the best football program in the Sunshine State was in 2010?
That would be the University of Central Florida (located in Orlando for those who don’t know).
I’m not saying UCF would have beaten Florida State or Florida (but probably Miami and USF) that year, but the Knights did win Conference USA and beat Georgia in the Liberty Bowl to finish 11-3. UCF finished the season ranked for the first time and won its first bowl game. It was by far the best season for a school that has produced the likes of Brandon Marshall, Asante Samuel and Daunte Culpepper.
Thus, expectations were extremely high for coach George O’Leary’s club heading into 2011, with UCF the overwhelming conference favorite and a potential BCS bowl buster.
However, the season was a disaster.
Central Florida finished 5-7 overall and 3-5 in C-USA. To be fair, six of the seven losses were by a touchdown or less, so it’s not like the team was that bad. But reports of major NCAA violations (also in basketball) rocked the program, and it is still awaiting word from the NCAA on penalties after self-imposing some.
The athletic director and a wide receivers coach accused of the violations stepped down in November. As of now the school is still eligible for postseason play, but reports say a decision from the NCAA could come very soon.
But even with possible penalties looming, expectations are again sky-high at UCF, as the school enters its final season in Conference USA before joining the Big East in 2013.
Coaching
O’Leary’s name will always be recognized by some because of what happened with his fudged resume at Notre Dame, but the guy can coach. This program was a national no-name when he arrived in 2004, but now it’s moving into a BCS conference (well, the Big East is a BCS conference for the time being) and the school built a gleaming new stadium on campus.
There was massive turnover on his staff this offseason—the entire defensive staff is new.
The biggest move was at defensive coordinator. O’Leary lured Ted Roof from Auburn to replace the fired John Skladany, but then Roof left after just a month to take the same job at Penn State. So Jim Fleming, who had been hired in December as linebackers coach, was promoted to coordinator.
Offense
In 2010, Jeffrey Godfrey was one of the top freshman QBs in the nation, leading UCF to that school-best season. He was named Conference USA's Freshman of the Year and a freshman All-American.
But 2011 couldn’t have gone more awry.
Godfrey struggled on the field and was implicated in the whole Nevin Shapiro mess, as Godfrey is from Miami and was a highly-touted recruit. Godfrey’s father also spoke out, basically saying that O’Leary undermined Godfrey last season and Luther Campbell (yes, that Luther Campbell), a mentor to Godfrey, called O’Leary a racist. Godfrey quit the team in December and was going to transfer.
Yet Godfrey, amazingly, is back on the team – now as a wide receiver.
Blake Bortles is the unquestioned starter after splitting time with Godfrey last year. Bortles, who doesn’t run like Godfrey could, completed 68.2 percent of his passes as a redshirt freshman along with six touchdowns and three interceptions, but didn’t actually start a single game. But by the end of the season, he was playing more than Godfrey, so the writing was on the wall.
The Knights should be stacked at running back with Brynn Harvey and Latavius Murray back—they combined for 1,124 yards and 11 TDs on just 224 carries—and the addition of transfer Storm Johnson. He was one of the top recruits in the nation in 2010 but left Miami after his freshman season and sat out last year.
All three leading receivers also return, and UCF welcomes freshman and potential star WR Breshad Perriman, whose father Brett was a star at Miami and played for a decade in the NFL.
The line is very experienced and adds transfer Phil Smith, who used to start at Georgia Tech.
Defense
The move to fire Skladanay was somewhat surprising considering this unit performed very well statistically in 2011. The Knights defense ranked No. 11 nationally in total defense (303 yards allowed per game), No. 10 in scoring defense (18.3 points allowed per game) and No. 19 in rushing defense (108.8 yards allowed per game), leading C-USA in all.
However, O’Leary said the statistics didn’t tell the entire story and basically said the defense failed to deliver critical stops late in games and didn’t force enough turnovers. Plus, that group was No. 100 in the nation in sacks.
But it should again be the best in the conference with eight starters back, despite the loss of First Team All Conference USA cornerback Josh Robinson, who left school early and was drafted in the third round by the Vikings.
2012 Central Florida Knights Schedule Analysis
The Knights have what should be two lock wins on the non-conference schedule in Akron and Florida International (although FIU beat UCF last year), but also probably two losses at Ohio State and home vs. Missouri.
It wouldn’t stun me, however, if the Knights upset the Tigers, considering UCF has the week off prior and Mizzou has to play at South Carolina the week previous.
The C-USA schedule shapes up nicely as UCF gets the two other likely East Division top teams, Southern Miss and East Carolina, in Orlando. And the Knights don’t play West Division favorite Houston during the regular season. Marshall and Tulsa figure to be the toughest road tests, but running the table during C-USA play is doable.
2012 Central Florida Knights Futures Odds
The Knights are plus-250 favorites to win Conference USA and plus-115 favorites to win the East Division, according to 5Dimes. UCF “over/under” wins totals: 7.5 (over the minus-400 favorite), eight (over the minus-260 favorite), 8.5 (both minus-110).
2012 Central Florida Knights Football Predictions
Last year’s slide was a bit of a fluke considering UCF was 0-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less (plus 0-6 on road). But presuming that Central Florida will be eligible to play in the conference title game, I believe the Knights finish the regular season at 9-3 and win the C-USA title (East Division is a lock) as no team has more overall talent.
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