After all that 2011-12 season has thrown up at us so far, we've come down to this—an AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens.
There's only one game in the year that's bigger than this one, and both teams will be desperate to chalk up a win here and move in to the Super Bowl for 2012.
It's that simple; both have everything to play for and both have everything to lose.
With all the hype, drama and tension that surrounds playoff games, and especially around the big ones, here are 10 burning questions that need answering leading up to the big game—10 questions that will provide us with insight as to who will walk away the winner, and whose season will end.
1. Is the Baltimore defense good enough to win this one?
Throughout the season, it is clear that Baltimore's strength is defense. Nobody is going to question me on that, because simply put, they are one of the top two defensive teams in the league. They've allowed only 16.6 points per game all season, and the question is as to whether this defense can quell the power of the Patriots.
Allowing fewer than 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards per game, the Ravens defensive unit will look to shut down the aerial game of Brady and force him to use Green-Ellis and Hernandez more on the ground—a fight Baltimore would love to get in to.
And after they allowed the fewest passing touchdowns all year, 15 interceptions and 48 sacks, the Ravens defense clearly has the opportunity to slow down Brady and his merry men. Will they slow it enough? We'll get to that in a bit.
Advantage: Baltimore Ravens
2. Can Joe Flacco perform on the big stage?
Throughout the year, many have ridden hard the performances by Flacco, dubbing him unable to handle the clutch situations throughout the year and that he is not a quality quarterback. I should know, I'm one of them.
Yes, I know the whole offense doesn't just rest with Flacco and yes, I know they have one of the most explosive running games in the league. But after watching a team with a great running game, and an average passing game get smacked up by the Pats and end up going down by 35 points, I think my concerns are valid.
Throughout the year, Flacco hasn't completed enough passes, hasn't thrown enough touchdowns and when he does complete throws, they haven't been for enough yards. Ranked 19th in passing, Flacco has completed at 57.7 percent for the year, at 6.7 yards per catch, for 213.9 yards per game and 21 touchdowns for the year.
Solid, but uninspiring.
And when you're coming up against a side that averages over 30 points per game, and a potential MVP quarterback, the 23.6 points per game that Flacco and the Ravens are putting up doesn't look like cutting it.
Despite taking down the Texans last week, Flacco was rather poor, and was made to look good by two superb catches from his receivers. If you take out the touchdown passes to Boldin and Evans, the Baltimore quarterback completed at less than 50 percent for just over 100 yards.
Encouraging numbers? Not in the slightest.
Advantage: New England Patriots
3. Just how good is Tom Brady?
Answer? Very good.
As mentioned, he's recorded over 30 points per game, and over 300 passing yards, and has thrown only 12 interceptions for the year. He's also chalked up more throws of 20-plus yards than any other quarterback in the league (yes, including Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers) and has averaged a quarterback rating of over 100 for the season.
Yeah, he's having a good year.
And after watching his dominance over the Denver Broncos last week, one has to notice that his form is second to none in the league. Eli Manning is playing well, but nowhere near as well as Brady, who has the offense in a frightening mood for defenses—even for defenses like Baltimore.
The play he has had going throughout the year and has continued in to the postseason with Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is second to none, and even against the strong Ravens defense, he will pick apart the defense as he pleases.
Advantage: New England Patriots
4. What impact will Ray Rice have on the game?
The 2011-12 season has once again shown us the best of Ray Rice, who chalked up another 2,000 total yard season, taking in his rushing and receiving yards. He recorded 15 touchdowns for the year, and at 4.7 yards per carry, he will be tough for the Patriots defense to stop.
Whilst not horrendous statistically, the Patriots allowed 117.1 yards per game rushing for 13 touchdowns for the season, and stopping Ray Rice does appear to be a tough ask. Against the Broncos however, the Patriots found great pressure and forced the number one rushing team to only 3.6 yards per carry. Stopping Ray on first and second down will be key to their chances.
Rice is a dominant player and much of the Ravens offense is built around him so expect him to go for around 100 yards rushing and a few catches in there as well, but if the Patriots can stop him moving the chain with ease, and force Flacco to make big-time throws, they'll be satisfied with their job.
Whilst I'm not expecting an 83 yard touchdown run from the line of scrimmage on the first play of the game from Rice—which is what happened the last time these two met in the playoffs—I am still expecting a dominant game from him as he tries his hardest to keep his sides season alive.
The Ravens are 12-0 when Rice has 20 or more touches of the football and as impressive as that stat is, how dominant Rice will be still remains to be seen.
Advantage: Baltimore Ravens
5. Can Baltimore's corners and safeties make big-time plays?
Stopping Tom Brady will be the key for the Baltimore Ravens to win this game—no other question really matters if they fail to stop Brady. The Ravens struggle in the end zone and kicking field goals is no solution if New England are just going to heap touchdown after touchdown on you.
The Baltimore defense needs to make big time plays on the ball, and stopping the Patriots passing game is nearly impossible. Expect Welker and Branch to clear the middle of the field for Gronk and Hernandez, and that gives Brady far too many options for my liking.
Despite allowing the fewest touchdowns in the league, the Ravens only managed 15 touchdowns in the regular season, and last week proved evidence as to how critical forcing turnovers can be for winning football games. The Texans would have been a lot closer last week if not for the turnovers created by the Ravens, and if they can do the same to the Patriots, then they may stand a chance.
Ranking third in pass deflections is not enough against Brady; they must take a big-time interception or two in a key moment of the game, otherwise they may just end up powerless against the phenomenon that is New England.
They've averaged 40 points in their last three games, and they will be heading for similar numbers if the Ravens defense doesn't do something drastic in this one.
Advantage: New England Patriots
6. Who will win the coaching battle?
After watching Harbaugh call big plays against the Texans both offensively and defensively, one thinks that he will need to be in the zone for this one, as against Bill Belichick, at home, will be tough to stop.
Interesting to note, John has come out this week (no, not in that way), and praised Belichick as a coach and a mentor to some extent, stating that "he's the greatest coach in our league right now, and that's proven...that's why you get so excited to play against him as a coach."
Psychological battle beginning? Perhaps. But after watching Belichick dispose of the Ravens, one thinks he may be another weapon that not even Harbaugh can overcome. This one is almost a split, but I'm going to give the advantage to the Patriots.
Just.
Advantage: New England Patriots
7. Can Rob Gronkowski be stopped?
No.
Ninety receptions for the year, which resulted in 17 touchdowns. At an average of 14.7 yards per catch, and a total of 1,327 receiving yards for the year, he is almost impossible to defend and will not be stopped in this one.
End of story.
If you need more evidence, watch this video. I mean, you try and defend against that.
Advantage: New England Patriots
8. Will the Patriots offensive line handle the Ravens defensive line?
As we've already discussed, the key to the Ravens winning rests in their ability to stop Tom Brady, and if they can't do it down the field with interceptions or pass breakups, then they're going to need to do it at the line of scrimmage—something they are well equipped in.
Throughout the season, the Ravens defense line chalked up the league's third highest sack total in 48 sacks, and against a Patriots offensive line that only allowed 32 sacks, they will have their work cut out for them.
The Patriots offensive line looked strong against Denver, but Baltimore is a step up, and for me, this one is a genuine split.
Ask me any other week up to last week, and I'd say that with Lewis and Suggs, the advantage is to Baltimore, but there was something about the Pats line last week. Brady just had too much time. Like, way too much time, and if that happens again here, that fat lady might as well just start singing.
Advantage: Split
9. What about the Patriots defense?
Ranking 31st in pass defense and 17th in rush defense, it's fair enough to have a few concerns about the Patriots defense. Especially when you consider that everyone's arguments usually start with "look at the Packers..."
Probably not best to look at them really.
New England weren't helped throughout the year with injuries, and their secondary was crippled, to put it nicely. Now that they're back to better health and subsequently have better depth in the roster, the defense will step up here. They were solid against both the run and the pass last week against Denver, and will look to continue that here.
Forty sacks is good pressure, but they'll need to bring more if they want to get to Flacco. The real key is the Patriots' secondary, which has taken the second most interceptions in the league, even though decimated through injury. If they can force a turnover or two, and convert offensively, they'll be too good.
Still, the advantage still sits with the Ravens' offense over the Patriots' defense.
Advantage: Baltimore Ravens
10. Can the Baltimore offense keep up with Brady?
We touched on it when we discussed Flacco and we mentioned it when we discussed Rice—the Baltimore offense must keep up with New England offensively to win this one.
They know it, the Patriots know it—everyone knows it and there's nowhere they can hide come kickoff. Flacco must convert on third down and Rice must get good yards on the first few downs so Flacco is not forced to deal with third and long.
If they can do that, then they may be in with a shot.
Considering the way these two exploded out of the blocks in their respective games last week, expect a similar thing to occur again here. The total points for the match won't get much higher than 50 odd, but there will be touchdowns early for both sides, which will result in a high-scoring match.
In the end, the Ravens red-zone and overall offensive inadequacies will force them in to playing catchup football, and the Patriots don't allow many leads to fall through their fingers. I'd take the Patriots to win 35-17 and advance to the Super Bowl as the deserved favorites.
Take Aaron Hernandez as the first touchdown scorer for a little bit of fun, and watch the Patriots get the job done on the Ravens.
Read more articles by Dan here or follow him on Twitter: @dantalintyre
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