Kentucky Derby Odds: Horses That Don't Provide Enough Value to Pick

When making Kentucky Derby picks, the ultimate goal should be finding the best value for your investment. Often, that means avoiding trendy picks that are causing a horse's odds to drop leading up to the big race at Churchill Downs.

Let's take a look at three horses that don't provide enough upside to consider using this afternoon. You'd be better off looking elsewhere to optimize value. For a complete look at the current odds for all 20 horses, click here. Lines used below current as of 10:35 a.m. EDT.

 

Take Charge Indy: 10/1

As predicted earlier in the week, the Calvin Borel effect is out in full force, with Take Charge Indy's odds dropping dramatically almost instantly. Borel's recent success in the Derby has many people convinced he can do it again.

While he definitely seems to have some type of magic working on the first Saturday of every May, Take Charge Indy simply isn't a 10-to-1 horse. That makes him the fourth option on the board, even though he only has the 10th-best prime power number.

There are too many people on the Borel bandwagon right now, and that's likely to continue right up until post time. That makes Take Charge Indy a longshot with contender's odds and not worth picking.

 

Daddy Long Legs: 23/1

The biggest surprise based on early trends is Daddy Long Legs' odds dropping so quickly. He's ranked dead last in prime power and starts from the No. 1 post position, which hasn't yielded a Kentucky Derby winner since 1986.

Daddy Long Legs doesn't have a well-known trainer or an elite jockey, so it's really a mystery as to why his line has come down so far. That said, it makes him an even worse selection than he was based on the morning line odds.

I would expect to see the odds on Daddy Long Legs start dropping eventually, probably back toward their starting point. But unless he reaches about 60-to-1—which won't happen—he's not a value selection.

 

Rousing Sermon: 35/1

Rousing Sermon has emerged as a popular sleeper pick over the past couple days. Unfortunately, when a sleeper pick goes mainstream, the odds start dropping, and it really doesn't serve as a sleeper anymore. That's the case here.

He ranks 17th in prime power, hasn't won a race in five starts and doesn't have the speed necessary to keep up with the top contenders. In reality, the only thing he has going for him that would warrant a drop in odds is an ideal starting position.

Instead of joining everybody else in supporting Rousing Sermon, you'd be better off looking at horses like Went the Day Well or Alpha. Both are capable of pulling off the upset and odds have gone up.

 

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1173157-kentucky-derby-odds-horses-that-dont-provide-enough-value-to-pick

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