As is usually the case, the 2010 NFL season was a good one for quarterbacks. Tom Brady won the MVP, Michael Vick dazzled us all on his way to winning the Comeback Player of the Year award, and Aaron Rodgers was simply amazing in the Green Bay Packers? run to the Super Bowl.
Elsewhere, San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers had a good year. Actually, he had a very good year. It?s just that relatively few people happened to notice.
If you are one of those people, notice this: Rivers led the NFL with 4,710 passing yards, was second with a 101.8 QB rating, and was fifth with 30 passing touchdowns.
Like I said, very good. But believe it or not, things are lined up for Rivers to have an even better season in 2011. As in, record-breaking better.
First of all, we have to consider just how amazing it is that Rivers was able to put up the kind of numbers he did in 2010. That he did it with Antonio Gates in and out of the starting lineup with injuries is impressive. That he did it with Vincent Jackson, his best receiver, missing all but five games is even more impressive. But what?s most impressive is the fact that Rivers amassed his passing totals with just 541 passing attempts.
That may sound like a lot, but six quarterbacks threw more passes in 2010. That list is headed by Peyton Manning, who threw 679 passes last season. That?s 138 more than Rivers, yet Manning actually passed for 10 fewer yards.
So if nothing else, we know that Rivers was pretty darned efficient in 2010. He better be ready to be just as efficient in 2011, because goodness knows he?s not going to get much help from the running game.
In their first year sans LaDainian Tomlinson since 2000, the Chargers were pretty mediocre on the ground in 2010. They were ninth in the NFL with 457 rushing attempts, but they only managed 113.1 rush yards per game. With an average of 4.0 yards per rush, they ranked near the lower third in the league.
This is a big reason why Rivers saw his passing attempts jump from 486 in 2009 up to 541. And because the Chargers? rushing attack doesn?t promise to see much improvement in 2011, Rivers can expect to throw the ball just as often.
Let?s stop here and add it all up. In Rivers, we have a quarterback who is going to be efficient, is going to throw the ball a lot, and is going to get more help from his receivers. By my reckoning, that should mean he?s due for an increase in passing yards, which will put him in a chase to break Dan Marino?s single-season record of 5,084.
That?s just 374 more yards than Rivers threw for in 2010. Do the math, and we?re talking about an extra 23 yards every week. That is doable, and I think it will get done.
Mark it, dude.
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