This year was supposed to be different for Bostonians.
That the Red Sox jumped to an 8-1 start in the season series felt like a marker. That this coming round's pitching matchups—Jon Lester (11-4, 3.17 ERA) and Bartolo Colon (8-6, 3.30); John Lackey (9-8, 6.23) and C.C. Sabathia (16.5, 2.55); Josh Beckett (9-4, 2.20) and Freddy Garcia (10-7, 3.22)—favor Boston overall presumably would cement it.
You knew the Sox lost ground since brooming the Yankees for three games in early June, but wrote it off as irrelevant. Clay Buckholz's back caved, but Colon's early season zing waned. The Sox added Erik Bedard before the deadline, while the Ivan Nova (10-4, 3.81) Project crested in his last seven starts (6-0, 2.91).
Their lineups are baseball's No. 1 and 2 in runs scored on the season, advantage Boston (602) by a mere eight runs. Individuals are a push too, with the Red Sox boasting the American League's top average and RBI total in Adrian Gonzalez (.356, 91), a wash considering Mark Teixeira's (31 HR, 85 RBI) and Curtis Granderson's (28, 85) output.
Any change in the status seems marginalized. Both have soared of suffered, but did so in unison, neither widening nor narrowing the chasm between them.
Not the old news, the instability from Joe Girardi's flirting with the Cubs. Or the confidence from out-walleting the Yankees ($300 million between Gonzalez and Carl Crawford), and catching up in a front-office chase dated in 2008.
Nor the latest developments, of Jeter's decline and demotion, and Alex Rodriguez' gambling itch. It seems eternally constant, these teams and their evenness.
Except by one measure: 8-1. That's the difference. That's the edge. That's what's hanging over the Yankees' heads, and dangling form the Sox back pockets.
But does it matter?
Does the lead?
Does the series?
It's great theater, the stuff of Don Zimmer's flopping and American League Championship Series comebacking and whatever this three-game installment brings.You don't have to hope it will be like the last one, with David Ortiz peacocking and Dustin Pedroia muscling through pain.
You know it will. You can't beat that, let alone understate it. It's the toast of sports rivalries, shorthand for the je ne sais quoi that "no love lost" suggests.
But outside of intercity animosity and untouchable tradition, does rivalry mean that much?
Consider: The largest margin of victory in a season series is three games, with each team taking an 11-8 turn in 2004 (BoSox) and 2006 (Yankees). The teams have pushed three years straight at 9-9.
The last time the Sox won the division (2007), they lost the head-to-head with New York (8-10). In their World Series runs, Boston has come out both on top (11-8 in 2004) and somewhat slighted (2007).
No matter how the games fall early, it rarely matters late. Since 2002, Boston has gone 66-47 in games before August 6, though the overall series is nearly tied, 81-86, New York.
The turnouts just seem arbitrary. You'd think a 10.5-game hole against the then-division leading Yankees would be choking and smothering. Not only didn't it change—the Yankees took the American League East that year—but it didn't matter: The Red Sox started 8-5, finished 11-8, yet somehow played second fiddle throughout that curious season of contradiction.
Until, of course, those Four Nights in October, 2004.
But that's too small a sample size for conclusion. The last 10 years have showcased only one playoff meeting between them, one divided and dominated by each team in its respective half. The Yankees rolled to start, the Red Sox rallied in unprecedented brilliance to finish.
Again: Sameness.
Makes you wonder whether it has any bearing. If the rivalry is bigger than itself.
There is a sliver of evidence. The consequences of a precipitous flop are steep, as the Yankees parlayed a 9-1 series finish into a Fall Classic win.
How'd the Red Sox start in the fateless 2009?
An unblemished 8-0.
But was that coincidence or causation? At first glance you figure the piling losses to the Yankees tanked their confidence, trickling into their unforgivable American League Divisional Series out (they lost 3-0 to LAA).
But which wheels came off first? The ones against the Yankees? Or everybody else?
Still, you push back:
"This year is defined by difference," you argue. "The Sox started 2-10, and have gone 66-31 since. That pace is worth 101 games over a full season, more than every year since 1946."
And you'd be right. Whether the start or since is the aberration—should they have been this good the whole time?—the combination only bodes well.
But does it matter tonight? Or tomorrow? Or Sunday?
And does the trilogy matter come October?
Hard as it would be to admit it's not, it's just as tough to argue it does.
Derek Fisher Pau Gasol Lamar Odom Baron Davis Blake Griffin Chris Bosh
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