Ravens vs. Patriots: New England's Defense Will Rule the Day

Here's a question you'll hear ad nauseam all week long from sportswriters and personalities discussing the AFC championship:

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?

They'll be talking about the potent offense of the New England Patriots facing the stout defense of the Baltimore Ravens. But they'll be focusing on the wrong battle. It will be the New England defense that will win the Patriots the game.

Wait, really? But New England's defense gave up 411.1 yards per game this season, the second-most yards allowed in the NFL—how will they stop the balanced Ravens offense?

Won't their offense have to beat Baltimore by out-dueling them in a shootout?

Hopefully not. The one position that burns most defenses that face New England—the talented tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez—is actually the one position that the Ravens have handled this year.

But you don't have to take my word for it—I'll let Edward Lee of The Baltimore Sun convince you:

The Ravens have surrendered the second-fewest yards in the NFL to tight ends (665), the second-fewest touchdowns (three) and the sixth-fewest receptions (62). No tight end has gained more than 73 yards against the defense this season.

I expect the Patriots will score far less than the 45 points they put on the Denver Broncos, in large part because Baltimore's defense won't surrender 14 receptions, 200 yards and four touchdowns to Gronkowski and Hernandez like Denver did.

But I also don't expect the Ravens will be able to force four turnovers and turn them into 17 points versus the Patriots like they did against the Houston Texans.

Consider that the Patriots were plus-17 in turnover differential in the regular season versus the plus-two for the Ravens.

In other words, the Ravens offense will have to generate their own points against the Patriots defense. And the Patriots defense will look to stuff the run much as the Texans did, who held the Ravens to only 87 rushing yards and held Ray Rice to 25 total touches for only 80 yards and no touchdowns.

Without the benefit of Rice running the ball or easy points coming from turnovers, the Ravens will turn to Joe Flacco and the passing game. Flacco was efficient if not bland against the Texans, going 14-of-27 for 176 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

He was also sacked five times, something the Patriots—who sacked opposing quarterbacks 40 times in the regular season—will try to replicate.

Forcing the Ravens to become one-dimensional by relying on the passing game is the key to forcing turnovers and beating them. In Baltimore's 12 wins in the regular season, Flacco averaged 32 passing attempts, threw for 15 touchdowns, six interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 87.1.

In the team's four losses, he averaged 39 passing attempts, threw for five touchdowns, six interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 65.5.

New England's offense won't dominate, but they won't give the ball away, either. Baltimore will have to earn its points, and the Patriots will hope to put the game squarely on the shoulders of Joe Flacco.

I expect them to do so, and thus, I expect the Patriots to win.

 

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Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1025495-ravens-vs-patriots-new-englands-defense-will-rule-the-day

Mike Fontenot Brett Pill Pat Burrell Jhan Marinez Anibal Sanchez John Baker