The Atlanta Braves have no reason to show a sense of urgency when it comes to the status of Martin Prado's contract. They are in no danger of losing him as he was arbitration eligible for the first time in 2011 and could be retained through the same process in each of the next two seasons.
The Braves have every right to take their time and see how things play out with the rest of the roster before considering signing Prado to an extension which would keep him in Atlanta beyond his arbitration eligible seasons.
However, assuming Prado picks up where he left off and continues to boost his 2011 statistics, the time to begin contract talks with Prado may be sooner than later.
My proposition is for Frank Wren to convince Martin Prado to forgo the arbitration process next winter and sign an extension with the Braves that would keep him in Atlanta beyond the two years that we are guaranteed to retain his services.
It may be somewhat foolish to invest money into a player who is not your offensive cornerstone, but statistics do not lie. In Braves wins, he is hitting .366 in 2011, while in Braves losses he’s hitting just .198.
I know these two sets of statistics could also point towards Prado being the cause of losing, but the living and dying by his abilities proves how important he is to the lineup. The Braves as a whole perform much better when Prado is atop the lineup and hitting.
Say what you desire about the Braves lacking a prototypical leadoff hitter to ignite the offense and create runs. That statement can not be denied. However, just as there is more than one way to build a successful franchise, there is more than one way of being an effective leadoff hitter.
Prado and his ability to hit doubles and the occasional home run represent the alternative to speed; where you rely on pure hitting ability rather than foot speed to create scoring opportunities on offense.
I can already imagine the "old school" lineup enthusiasts scoffing and saying Prado's the perfect two-hole hitter, but I am of the newer "sabermetric" school of thought where you would like to get your best hitters as many at-bats as possible in an attempt to allow them to impact the game more often.
In that respect, Prado would serve as an equally dangerous leadoff as compared to a speed-demon like a Michael Bourn.
Whether Prado’s future position is left field, at second base or even at the hot corner, it does not matter. The fact is that Prado can hit, and having had so many offensive issues in recent seasons, his consistency has been the Braves’ saving grace. Securing Prado would go a long way towards ensuring a bright future for the franchise.
Many readers may clamor that there are more pressing payroll issues to be concerned about. How will we retain Tommy Hanson through arbitration? Will we be able to afford Jurrjens once he hits free agency?
Or maybe they will suggest that we should lock up others like Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel and the aforementioned combo of Hanson and Jurrjens before we do Prado. These are all fair assessments of the impending payroll situation.
Yet, we do not know if we will be able to sign Jurrjens and Hanson, as they are both represented by Scott Boras.
We have also given Heyward the “Next Big Thing” title without having ever seeing him avoid the power-sapping injuries like the thumb problem that hampered him for much of the second half in 2010 and the shoulder injury that cost him time in 2011.
We’re not even sure if Craig Kimbrel will take off and light up the league for years like Mariano Rivera or crash and burn like countless other loose cannon fire-ballers have in the past.
Prado, having watched him produce for almost four years now, is as close to a sure bet for paying dividends on your investment as they come.
Earning $3.1 million in 2011, Prado is likely set to warrant another decent raise in pay come the 2012 season no matter how he finishes this season. He could be earning upwards of $4 million despite the staph infection that has cost him nearly a month of playing time.
If they are to sign Prado to an extension, it would no doubt come at a higher upfront cost. He may be paid $4.5 million or slightly more in the first year of an extension.
However, where we pay upfront, we save in the long term. After the 2013 season he may be paid at a similar rate to Dan Uggla’s $13 million as a free agent. He may even get more. If you sign him during the winter we may be able to retain him for $8-11 million in the first few years of what would have been his free agent seasons.
The only concern then becomes a question over term and price.
Personally, I would not hesitate to give Prado a four-year contract with an option for the fifth season. It would buy out his final two seasons of arbitration and potentially keep him in Atlanta three years after he would have become a free agent.
It may be a flawed theory as he has moved positions, but I compared his situation to those of past benefactors of pre-free agency extensions at second base. The three examples I focused on were Brandon Phillips of the Reds, Ian Kinsler of the Rangers and Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox.
Each player signed extensions with their respective clubs in the midst of, or even before, the arbitration process and each of them are arguably paid below what they would be worth had they gone year-to-year through arbitration and tested the free agent market.
Phillips sign a four-year, $27 million contract with a fifth-year option which bought out all of his arbitration years and potentially two of his free agent seasons.
Kinsler inked a team-friendly five-year contract worth $22 million with a sixth season option that bought out his third season, all three of his arbitration-eligible years, and potentially two of his free agent seasons.
Pedroia was given a six-year contract with a seventh season option worth a whopping $40.5 million. His deal, like Kinsler's, bought out his third season and arbitration-eligible years, but keeps him in Boston up to to three years after he would have been a free agent.
Each of the three received similar salaries to that of Prado's $3.1 million in what would have been their first years of arbitration, so each of their deals may be a nice basis of what we can expect to pay Prado if we are to extend him.
As I stated earlier in this article, Prado would be owed over $4 million in arbitration. Also, as I mused earlier, we may have to pay upfront to make it worth Prado's time to sign such a team-friendly contract. With that in mind, I'd offer him a salary of $5 million in the first year of his deal and steadily increase in each season following that.
For 2013, I'd increase his salary to $6 million in what would be his final year of arbitration where he could earn upwards of $8 million through the court process.
In what would be his first free agent season, I'd up his 2014 pay to $8 million; then $11 million in 2015 with a team option for 2016 worth another $11 million.
The salaries would add up to a four-year, $30 million. If the option were picked up, it would result in a five-year, $41 million contract—well below what he would likely earn as a free agent.
To sweeten the pot for Prado, we could even add in various incentives and bonuses based on achievements like Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards as well as All-Star selections.
I think we have a strong basis to do this, and Frank Wren should highly consider doing this sooner rather than later. The closer we allow Prado to get to free agency, the more he will cost as he proves how important he is to our offense.
Sign him now and reap the rewards both on the field and on the payroll.
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