The 2011 NBA Draft lottery will take place this Tuesday, May 17. While usually teams are salivating over the opportunity to draw the first overall selection, this year presents a relatively weak class.
Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Derrick Rose and Tim Duncan are just some first overall selections who developed into basketball icons. They changed the culture of their respective teams and brought their franchises to relevancy on their own accord.
In 2009, it was clear Blake Griffin was the choice for every single lottery team drafting that year. The Clippers' representative at the lottery even wore a jacket with Griffin's number on one lapel of his jacket.
This year's class doesn't have quite the potential we have grown accustomed to seeing.
Kyrie Irving is probably going to be regarded as the "prize" of this year's lottery, but he has serious red flags. Injuries sidelined him and he is grossly inexperienced at the collegiate level.
He could be the second coming of Chris Paul, but drafting a guy No. 1 overall is a huge investment. What if his injuries follow him to the next level?
Next to Blake Griffin or John Wall, there really is no comparison. Even so, whoever is selected first is going to be handed bushels of money. While the hype may not be the same, last year's contract for the No. 1 overall pick serves as a benchmark for this year's deal.
Essentially, teams are going to be paying more money for a lesser player. This is not the year to select first.
Here is a good chart to gather some perspective on the money being spent on NBA rookies, relative to where they are selected. Go ahead and ignore the NFL comparisons for all intents and purposes.
You can see that No. 1 overall selection Blake Griffin makes $16 million in guaranteed money, while No. 8 overall pick Jordan Hill makes $8 million in guaranteed money.
While that seems fair and logical for the 2009 draft class, it may not be the case for the 2011 draft class.
Assuming Irving goes first overall, he too could see twice the guaranteed money of the eighth overall pick. Is the dropoff between Irving and say, Marcus Morris, that significant?
Morris has a more complete body of work and has improved drastically every year he was in college. Certainly, Irving has more upside, but Morris may be considered a safer pick.
Even if you disagree, it's impossible to not weigh the opportunity cost of selecting first in this year's relatively weak class. Irving can be an impact player, but has a long road ahead of him if he is to warrant the money given to him.
This year's draft lottery winner may be winning a financial debacle, rather than a franchise savior.
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