The Chicago Bears (7-7) take a holiday trip to visit the long-time rival Green Bay Packers (13-1) on Christmas Day. The Packers emerged victorious when the teams played in Week 3, and have won five of the past six meetings dating back to 2009.
Chicago's once promising season has come crashing down following injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. The Bears have lost four straight games, including a blowout defeat at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks last week. That said, heading into this weekend's games they haven't been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Packers, on the other hand, continue their quest to secure the NFC's top overall seed heading into the playoffs. They can accomplish that task if they beat the Bears or if the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Seattle Seahawks. In other words, things are still looking good despite their first loss.
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
When: Sunday, Dec. 25 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Watch: NBC
Spread: Packers -13.5
Even though Green Bay has had a lot of success against Chicago recently, not many of the wins have been blowouts. Every game (seven in total) between the two teams has been decided by less than this week's spread since 2008.
That's not a surprising trend considering how close division matchups usually are across the NFL. If nothing else, the Bears defense has enough pride to step up to keep this game close until the second half. That should be enough for Chicago to cover.
Pick: Bears
Over/Under: 43
As you'll see when you look at my score projection at the end, this line comes dangerously close to my total (44). Usually when it's that close between what you expect and what the oddsmakers expect, it's best to avoid the pick altogether.
That said, over would be the way I would lean. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense will want to get back on track after a minor stumble last week. Combined with the fact their defense is nothing special, it wouldn't be surprising to see a late touchdown push it over.
Pick: Over
Key Injuries (via NFL.com)
Bears: QB Jay Cutler (out, thumb), RB Matt Forte (out, knee), RB Marion Barber (doubtful, calf), LB Lance Briggs (questionable, ankle), WR Devin Hester (questionable, ankle)
Packers: WR Greg Jennings (out, knee), OT Bryan Bulaga (out, knee), DE Ryan Pickett (out, concussion), RB James Starks (probable, knee), LB Desmond Bishop (probable, calf)
Fantasy Big Plays
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB): Rodgers has led a lot of fantasy teams to their respective championship games this week, and owners will be relying on him more than ever to deliver a title. He scored 21 points in his first game against the Bears and should post a similar total on Sunday night.
RB Kahlil Bell (CHI): Matt Forte and Marion Barber are both expected to miss the game, which means Bell will see a heavy workload against a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed at nearly 400 per game. That should lead to a big game, both on the ground and through the air, for the UCLA product.
TE Jermichael Finley (GB): There have been few fantasy investments more disappointing than Finley. Aside from one monster game in Week 3, he's only crossed the eight-point barrier twice. But which team did he dominate? You guessed it, the Bears. If you've stuck with him for this long, don't give up now.
Keys to Bears Win
1. Don't get into a shootout: Chicago doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Packers, so it's not even worth trying. Whenever the Bears have the ball, they need to burn off as much clock as possible to give themselves a chance in the second half.
2. Learn from the Chiefs: Kansas City held the ball for more than 36 minutes, held Rodgers to a 49 percent completion rate and made key stops on third down. There's no bulletproof method to stopping the Packers, but the Chiefs did about as good as possible.
Keys to Packers Win
1. Keep things the same: One loss shouldn't cause the Packers to start making significant changes. They are still the league's best team and Super Bowl favorite. Most of the time the changes only end up being overcompensation anyway. Just get back to basics and keep doing what was working before last week.
2. Balance on offense: Green Bay only had 14 rushing attempts by running backs against the Chiefs. While it's smart to let Rodgers do most of the heavy lifting on offense, there at least needs to be the threat of a run to keep defenses from sitting on routes.
Prediction
Packers 27, Bears 17
Derek Fisher Pau Gasol Lamar Odom Baron Davis Blake Griffin Chris Bosh
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