I don’t know about you, but I am fired up. We are just days away from the 2011 NFL Draft and things are shaping up for it to be one of the most exciting drafts in recent memory. Will Newton be the number one pick? Or will Newton drop? Is Blaine Gabbert worth the number one overall selection? How far could Da’Quan Bowers or Nick Fairley drop, or will there be no real drama and both wind up top ten picks? Lastly, which team will make that ill-fated “reach” pick? And how many more draft picks will the Patriots acquire because of Belichick’s Godfather-esque, “I gotta deal you can’t refuse”? With less than a week to go, here is my final attempt to make sense of it all. Let’s take a peek at my Final Mock Draft 3.0.
Carolina Panthers: Because there is no consensus number one pick, the question for the Panthers and Ron Rivera is: are we looking to make a dramatic jump next year, or are we willing to make baby steps that will lead to more success in the coming years? They might believe in Clausen, so no one really knows, but with no round two pick and having to entertain calls to trade down, especially from Buffalo, they take it to the wire then select: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.
Original pick: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. Rationale: Gabbert is less of a risk and Rivera, like most new coaches, wants to saddle up with "his" guy.
Denver Broncos: Fox knows the defense needs help, and he knows he needs an up the field pass rusher or a force in the middle. He takes the more solid pick in Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama.
Original pick: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.
Buffalo Bills: Buddy Nix, GM for Bills, was on NFL Network and in trying to read between the lines, I felt his endorsement of Fitzpatrick was enough to say they would NOT take a QB with the 3rd pick, but more so in the 2nd round. Also, Gailey is trying to install his 3-4, so conventional wisdom has him picking a defender. But which defender will make the quickest impact? If Fairley is the next Warren Sapp, he goes here, but he could also consider the top OLB in Miller. Then, there's an end rusher in Quinn or Bowers. Gailey flips a coin and it lands on Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M.
Original pick: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.
Cincinnati Bengals: This is where things get interesting, as if they weren’t interesting from the first pick. The Bengals suddenly have a problem at QB. Newton sounds real attractive here, but nightmares of Akili Smith prevent them from déjà vu all over again. With that being said, Cincinnati has three options: WR, DE, DT. And believe it or not, I think the Bengals pull the rabbit out of the hat with: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin.
Original pick: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.
Arizona: This is an interesting dilemma for the Cardinals. Initially it looked like they wanted to trade for Kolb, but now that trades and free agency are off the table Whisenhunt would like to have a franchise QB, and a guy he compares to Roethlisberger is there for the picking. He needs a possible game changer on defense, but Miller is gone. They could go with Quinn, but they pull the trigger on Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. Original pick: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns cannot believe their luck because A.J. Green is available. Holmgren and company add firepower with: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.
Original pick: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri.
San Francisco 49ers: Harbaugh takes a playmaker and perhaps the best athlete in the draft: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.
Original pick: Peterson
Tennessee Titans: Most convention goes the way of QB here, but with Gabbert and Newton gone, they hope Mallett is still there in round 2. Titans will try to pick up a FA QB (when, and if, it happens) and decide to go back to their staple, strong defense. Most have Fairley here, but they go even younger when they first select: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina.
Original pick: Quinn
Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones wants to pull the surprise of the day but he is unable to pull a cap and trade, and with Quinn and Watt pulled out from under him, he selects Tyron Smith, OL, USC.
Original pick: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.
Washington Redskins: Again, convention would have you believe that Shanahan drafts a QB, but Gabbert and Newton are gone, so he waits until the 2nd round to get a QB. Also, with Haynesworth in the air, this could be where Fairley lands. A lot of experts have Julio Jones here and that may be the case, but if you cannot protect your signal caller it doesn’t matter who is running routes. The Redskins have so many needs, and Shanahan realizes he must protect his QB, whoever that may be. Redskins select: Nate Solder, OL, Colorado.
Original pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.
Houston Texans: The shouts in NY can be heard all the way from Houston, dee-fense, dee-fense, and they hear the maddening crowd and with Smith, Amukamara, and Jordan still out there they select: Cameron Jordan, DE, California. Jordan is moving up draft boards.
Original pick: Marcel Dareus, DL, Alabama.
Minnesota Vikings: I have really struggled with this one because the Vikings are in an interesting position, yet strangely an awkward picking point. For the Vikings, do they grab a young QB, one of the top OTs, or even consider Smith from Missouri? Ideally, I think Minnesota would like to trade down in order to pick up the lost 3rd round pick (Randy Moss). Check out my other article dedicated exclusively to the Vikings 2011 draft: Vikings Complete 2011 NFL Draft: Rebuilding or Retooling? Minnesota sees Smith and Solder go before them so they select: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College.
Original pick: Jake Locker, QB, Washington.
Detroit Lions: Building a pretty decent team on paper, but will it translate into more victories? With Smith, Solder, and Castonzo gone, the building continues, but on the other side of the ball with: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.
Original pick: Tyron Smith, OL, USC
St. Louis Rams: The Rams are in a curious position because they have real needs in some key areas, but when you are in a division like the NFC West, scoring seems to be more of a premium than defense. Bradford gets another weapon in Julio Jones, WR, Alabama. Many have Jones in Washington but I don't.
Original pick: Jones
Miami Dolphins: Sporano considers Ingram, but again, with no free agency we have to assume Ronnie stays. Dolphins try to trade down, and if not, they select Mike Pouncey, G, Florida.
Original pick: Pouncey.
Jacksonville Jaguars: You have to give Jack del Rio credit. He does his own thing and shirks convention. He is in a division that shouts for defense and so he selects: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri.
Original pick: Cameron Jordan, DE, California.
New England Patriots: What a position to be in, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Belichick trade down…again. However, he likes Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona.
Original pick: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
San Diego Chargers: This is a tricky draft because the Chargers could lose Sproles or Jackson If and when FA rolls around, and if so those areas become immediate needs; however, they will not know that until the draft is over. The players they may have hoped would drop do not: Aldon Smith, Cameron Jordan, JJ Watt, and they draft a solid: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue.
Original pick: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA.
New York Giants: A lot of draft-nicks have the Giants looking to defense here, but there is more of a pressing need on the other side. Coughlin doesn’t have to worry about moving up or down. He stays right here and drafts Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin. However, Mark Ingram could be awfully tempting here, or maybe even Akeem Ayers. Surprisingly the G-men are sitting at a good spot.
Original pick: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris looks to continue building a strong defensive front but he can’t pass on a guy who has dropped more than people would have thought. Sometimes it is all about needs, and Amukamara becomes a windfall for the Bucs: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.
Original pick: Clayborn.
Kansas City Chiefs: Sometimes when you are sitting at 21 you want to draft for your top need, and the Chiefs have 3 apparent needs: OL, DE, DT. My bet is they go for best athlete. Hmm, Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.
Original pick: Kerrigan
Indianapolis Colts: Corey Liuget or Christian Ballard sound good here, but this is pretty much a no brainer; protect the KING at all costs. Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State.
Original pick: Tyron Smith, T, USC.
Philadelphia Eagles: The need is on defense, but Reid also knows that Vick was running for his life later in the season, so he goes with a guy who can step in right away: Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor.
Original pick: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.
New Orleans Saints: Saints fans are singing in the streets as Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois falls in their lap. Also, this could be Christian Ballard, DT, Iowa.
Original pick: Liuget
Seattle Seahawks: Many have Seattle drafting Locker, and that might be true. But how much confidence do you suppose would affect Whitehurst, a guy they traded for? I just don’t see it. And even though Carroll is perplexed, I think he wants to build a stout defense. He selects: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Original pick: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State.
Baltimore Ravens: This team suddenly needs defense and if there was a year for defense to dominate the draft, this one is it. Torrey Smith is right up the road, and since they lose out on Smith they opt for another weapon for Flacco: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
Original pick: Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona.
Atlanta Falcons: So close, yet so far. One thing the playoffs often reveal is glaring weaknesses, and for Atlanta it was in the defensive backfield area. There are two or three corners to choose from, but after Amukamara the talent drops off to second round talent. With Smith and Harris gone, they go to Plan B and that is DE with Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State. They could be tempted to grab a WR here as well, but more of the priority lay on defense.
Original pick: Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin.
New England Patriots: My guess is Belichick gets his wish and trades out of the first round. He doesn’t want to pay two first round draft picks. However; if unable to do so because the “Godfather” doesn’t get what he wants, he opts for: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
Original pick: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami.
Chicago: This one is a tough call, but there are two schools of thought: Do you get another weapon for Cutler, or do you protect Cutler? If Martz has his way it’s another target. Lovie was here before Martz and understands what he needs: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor.
Original pick: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland.
New York Jets: Ryan sticks with defense in Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi, or at the very least one of the DT’s who fits the Jets system.
Pittsburgh Steelers: They need better line protection and since Pouncey and other top tier tackles are gone, they go next position, Muhammad Wilkerson, NT, Temple.
Original pick: Wilkerson.
Green Bay: Yes, they are the reigning Super Bowl champs, but they still have some concerns, especially on the offensive line. The problem is that there are no real top tier guys left. The middle of their defense struggled at times so they could look at Wilkerson, Phil Taylor, Marvin Austin, if they are available, but there’s still a need to protect Rodgers too, so Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova.
Original pick: Gabe Carimi, OL, Wisconsin
Well, once again, that’s my take. As you can see there were several changes, but when the dominoes start to fall a lot of changes go with it. Of course, this is without trades taking place, and I have a feeling there are going to be a lot of them. We had some players drop (Akeem Ayers and Mark Ingram in particular, but someone will most likely draft Ingram in the 1st, I just couldn't see him above number 20), while others rose. Observation: All teams must be wary of who might jump up, or trade back. It’s right around the corner gang, time to get fired up!
Lance Berkman Reegie Corona Juan Miranda Colin Curtis Kevin Russo Curtis Granderson
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